Law of Large Numbers

Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is a theorem in probability that describes the long-term stability of the mean of a random variable. Given a random variable with a finite expected value, if its values are repeatedly sampled, as the number of these observations increases, their mean will tend to approach and stay close to the expected value.

Too complicated? Ok, for example, what is the chance of throwing a coin getting tail or head? Everyone knows it is 50/50.

but when you actually do it and throw a coin 10 times, what percentage do you get? Maybe 3 heads 7 tail or 6 tail 4 heads right? Yet when you increase the times of throwing, e.g. 100 times, 1000 times, 1 million times, the more you throw, the chance of getting the expected percentage 50/50 will  get closer and closer.

Useless information? I know, but we live under this law every single day, just we don't feel it because none of us will do the same thing over and over again.

How is this practical? It pays extremely important part in insurance, but I am not going to talk about that today.

Recently I am making cold call, according to LLN, the expected successful rate of getting an appointment from cold call is roughly 3%, it means when i make 100 calls to random people, no matter how i charming or use the best techniques, the appointments i will make is between 2-4%.

Most new people who don't know this rules they will spend enormous time to work on their techniques, but after awhile they know it is the same no matter how hard they try, just do it and keep it simple.

I know the theory, yet knowing the theory is one thing, actually do it is another thing, i scared like everyone else, no one want to hear 97 no and only 3 yes.

My manager's manager is a 40 years old woman, career type, when she started her career in insurance she had no friends since she was back from Canada, therefore cold call was the only way, after 15 years she now has roughly 1000+ clients, all from cold calls.

According to this law of large number, and consider she is so good at selling that her successful deal closing rate is 1/3, she have made 100,000 cold calls, in order to get 3000 appointments to achieve that 1000+ clients.

Can you not respect that?

I have started my first 100, and my deal closing rate is so low, like 10%? Long way to go kid, this is crazy.